Tuesday, September 25, 2012
I'd like to know if there is a way to account for tax-free cash flows? (for example, an individual has agreed to lend a mortgage to someone. The capital payments that this individual recieves should be tax-free.)
You can enter up to four different years' worth in 'Other Assets'. If payments are monthly, multiply by twelve, then select a ca;endar year for each for 'Year Anticipated'. Also, be sure to select 'Other future assets' in 'Sources of Income'.
If there are more than four years of payments, then enter them as 'Additional Income' in 'Sources of Income'.
These amounts are taxed as income, so you could gross them up by a percentage such that the after-tax amount is roughly equivalent to the non-taxable payments.
Saturday, September 15, 2012
I have done extensive research on the Internet regarding using Monte Carlo simulators for retirement planning. From what I have read, it is more important to withdraw a fixed percentage (i.e 4%) of your total portfolio each year rather than a dollar amount. For example a $1 million porfolio you would withdraw 4% or $40,000 per year and let the rest grow.
My question is does your Monte Carlo simulation allow you to enter withdrawls amounts as a percentage of the portfolio as opposed to just a dollar amount. Some programs will event tell you how much you can withdraw at a given level of probability.
In other words, you have a 95% probability of not running out of money for xxx years if you withdraw xxx amount per year. How does your program deal with these issues.
With RetireWare, you build a plan by choosing a retirement income objective, and the income need is met using Government and company pensions, other income, and investment assets, each with their withdrawal rules and tax treatment. You run your plan on a deterministic basis (that is, assuming no variations in expected rates of return).
Withdrawals from invested assets depend on what you need to close the gap between the retirement income objective and income payable each particular year. This amount varies as some are indexed, others come in payment only from a certain age and some cease being paid at a particular point in the future (for example, if you work on a part-time basis for a few years after retirement).
The retirement plan that you create with all this level of detail is "stressed-test" using a Monte Carlo simulation, where the expected rate of return for each asset class varies randomly in accordance with its volatility. Monte Carlo is integrated with the actual plan and is not merely a flat withdrawal percentage each year. We have seen articles showing a safe withdrawal rate using Monte Carlo simulation as an analysis tool, but they usually used a simplified model. Our model takes into account various types of income and various types of investment accounts (non-registered, RRSP, locked-in assets, etc., each with their own withdrawal constraints).
You can try different retirement income objectives and see the probability of success for each. Then you can decide the income level you feel most comfortable with.
By: Apeiron Software Limited On 10:26 AM
Friday, September 14, 2012
What would have happened if you retired 30 years ago?
In my previous post, we talked about safe withdrawal rates.
The withdrawal rate is a convenient approach that researchers use to determine how much a retiree can withdraw each year from a portfolio of assets and minimize the odds of running out of money (the "Probability of ruin").
Probability calculations are speculative: they are based on assumptions such as the expected annual return and volatility of the investments. Nevertheless, they are quite helpful for making decisions and evaluating options. They also may be the best approach to plan the future.
The magic period is often taken as 30 years to cover a typical retirement period, e.g. from age 65 to age 95. The withdrawal rate increases each year by the rate of inflation to maintain spending power constant.
You recently got rid of your disco shirts and have $10,000 to invest on January 1, 1982. Will it be stocks or bonds?
If you invest in a diversified portfolio of stocks, you will have around $140,000. You will suffer anguish for a few years after the "dot com" bubble burst as your portfolio value turns south. After a steady recovery, your portfolio will suffer with the mortgage-backed security debacle. The stock market will have taken you for a roller coaster ride and you need resolve and discipline to ride out the rough times.
If you invest in a diversified portfolio of bonds, you will have almost $180,000 after 30 years. Most years your returns will be decent, sometimes disappointing, rarely spectacular, but you will have lost very little sleep ... and money.
Historical Returns Comparison -- Last 30 Years
In this illustration I made a few assumptions: equities earn the S&P/TSX Total Return Index. Fixed income returns are those of the DEX Universe Bond Total Return Index (and its predecessor the Scotia bond universe index). In both cases, there is no allowance for investment management fees.
In the calculations below, we'll adhere to these assumptions and also we'll use the actual rate of inflation to increase the annual withdrawal, not a fixed rate such as 2.5%.
The RetireWare Website has a free tool where you can compare returns over various historical periods and asset classes. You can try it here.
What happened in the past?
I will go a little longer than 30 years and look at historical returns since 1964, for the last 48 years. Here are a few interesting facts.
Range of returns
These are the range of returns that one could achieve by owning a portfolio closely matching their respective indices.
Frequency of returns
Now let's look at the distribution of annual returns. The next table shows the number of years for various range of returns in the years between 1964 and 2011 inclusive.
|Return between 0% and 10%|
|Return between 10% and 20%|
|Return above 20%|
|Years since 1964|
A few observations:
- Equities have earned about 2% more than fixed income. This is the risk premium. You take more risk, experience volatility and the higher returns makes it all worthwhile.
- With 14 years of negative returns for equities, you need nerves of steel to stay the course and reap the years of big returns. If you got out of the market at one point, your performance could've ended up lower than bonds.
- A 2% premium may not look like much but means there will be about 30% more money after 30 years.
- The "bread and butter" return of fixed income is between 0% and 10%.
- Equity returns revel with extremes: it is often all or nothing, not unlike ... the casino!
- Risk is real. With equities, if things go wrong your capital is at stake. Diversification will mitigate risk, but systemic risk will remain, such as an economic collapse, recession or depression.
As an aside, both historical return series (1964-2011) have almost no correlation. In other words, there is no pattern between bond and equity returns. They didn't tend to move together or away from each other. However, in the last 10 years, bond and equity returns have been negatively correlated. Negative correlation means that if one asset class does poorly, the other tends to do well. This is desirable as it dampers volatility and produces more stable rates of returns in a balanced portfolio.
Now what happens with withdrawals?
With bonds your money would run out in about 25 years. Not bad. With stocks, your money would have lasted 48 years!
I tried retirement various starting years and it was hard to go bankrupt with stocks. Even starting in 1990, with a -14.9% return and assuming a 0% return for years after 2012, money would still last 47 years.
Should we invest all in a diversified portfolio of equities?
Well, unfortunately it didn't go like this all the time. If you retired on January 1, 1982, you would have done better with fixed income.
Withdrawal rate that
lasted 30 Years
These are very high withdrawal rates. They are the result of a secular bull market and strong bond returns at the same time (and to a lesser extent ignoring investment fees). Of course, one needed to know the future to confidently withdraw such high amounts each year. But we can see that all asset allocations produced results that would work for even the highest spenders.
What about recent experience? If I look at the last 10 years and repeat the sequence three times to form a thirty year series of returns, I will have more modest bond returns and more volatile stock returns.
This time, much lower withdrawal rates can be sustained.
to fixed income
Withdrawal rate that
lasted 30 Years
However, having 40% in stocks achieves the same result as 100% in stocks. 40% in stocks instead of 100% reduces the annual volatility of returns from 20% to less than 8%. Having a moderate portfolio with a lot of fixed income produces the same end result and is much more stable. It provides return-boosting exposure to equities and peace of mind at the same time.
What to make of this?
It is flawed to look at one or a few paths: they actually occured and will never come back. But in order to understand what can happen in the future, we have no choice but to look at the past.
The past has been full of unexpected events that impacted the economy and in turn affect capital markets, interest rates and inflation. The unexpected may very well continue to occur and our best tool to manage uncertainty is diversification.
If I was a betting man, I would say we will continue to see volatile equities and low yielding fixed income. I would also say that achieving a 4% withdrawal rate is a no brainer even in this environment.
By: Apeiron Software Limited On 11:48 AM
Friday, September 7, 2012
Upcoming release dates
First, a sincere thank you to all who have expressed interest in our new product.
I think it is breaking new grounds and will help many Canadians prepare for retirement and monitor their finances using modeling tools that value design and sophistication.
Our beta release date of August 31 has come and gone. However, we are in the process of testing all aspects of the application and are very close to a release.
The plan is to start inviting users in the week following September 20. If all goes well, we will have a live date of October 20.
Maintaining full scope
Developing a new software product is a balancing act between project scope, cost and timeline. Many believe only two of these three constraints can ever be met.
Compromising on scope is not an option. Keeping development costs in check is paramount to maintain our price structure and free access to non-professional users.
This leaves timeline as a constraint that is harder to meet. Thanks for your patience.
In the pipeline
For those who registered, watch for an email shortly after September 20 with login access. We will seek your feedback and incorporate popular suggestions in the coming months.
Marc Des Rosiers, FSA, FCIA
Apeiron Software Limited
By: Apeiron Software Limited On 5:21 PM
Does your software take into consideration the tax deductibility of investment loans (i.e. do we have the option to make a loan deductible or non-deductible)?
No it does not. This is a refinement we plan to bring in the future.
By: Apeiron Software Limited On 10:31 AM
Sunday, September 2, 2012
Your calculations for the amount of Canada Pension and Old Age Security which I will receive increase dramatically over the years.
What is the basis for these annual increases? Is there any provision made for Claw-Back of Old Age Security Payments in years when total income is above the limit?
CPP and OAS increase annually by the rate of inflation you selected, unless you left the default value, which is 2.5%.
Clawback is applied in the calculations and is reflected in the income tax column of the results.
By: Apeiron Software Limited On 7:53 PM